JP Morgan names the timeline for the end of the war in Ukraine: the most realistic scenario.

JPMorgan's forecast on Zelensky's agreement with Russia

According to analysts from JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics, President Zelensky may be able to conclude a less-than-ideal agreement with Russia by the end of 2025. Experts consider four possible scenarios for ending the conflict, the most likely being the 'Georgian' scenario with a 50% probability.

According to the financial giant, Ukraine is increasingly struggling, Europe is tired, and the US is losing patience. This means that Zelensky will have to make concessions to Russia; however, the agreement will not be a full-fledged peace settlement of the conflict.

Different scenarios and their probability

The 'South Korea' scenario (15%) suggests that Ukraine will not become a NATO member and will not regain its lost territories but will be able to ensure European security with American guarantees.

In the case of the 'Israel' scenario (20%), Ukraine will receive important military and economic support while maintaining internal restraint. However, the war will not cease completely.

The most likely option is the 'Georgia' scenario (50%), which foresees continued instability and a gradual distancing of Ukraine from Western integration.

Putin puts forward maximalist demands: NATO membership, Ukrainian nuclear weapons, foreign troops, military assistance, a large Ukrainian army, and armaments...

Experts say that under such developments, Russia could control all of Ukraine for the next 118 years, prompting Putin to reach an agreement to achieve his main goal - control over Kyiv.

Entering a new phase in relations

A significant change in relations between the US and Europe has been noted following Zelensky's meeting with the American government. European countries are beginning to seek greater autonomy from the US, illustrated by the refusal of a UN resolution and the temporary suspension of military assistance to Ukraine. The new Chancellor of Germany has announced an intention to achieve independence from the United States, promising significant investments in defense.

Among the key events to note for the future are the G7 and NATO summit in June, the meeting between Trump and Putin, as well as possible troop redeployments in Europe. A EU vote regarding sanctions against Russia is also planned for July.